ANALYSIS - 2026 Could be a Different Kind of Bakken Boom
Steve Hallstrom
Special to The Farmer
Here at The Farmer, we’ve spent a lot of time over this past year of 2025 talking to you about “North Dakota grit.” We’ve seen the highs and we’ve seen the lows, and let’s be honest - predictions aren’t worth much in our part of the world, so when it comes to economic forecasts, we know that a “black swan” like COVID-19 can jump out of the bushes and torpedo a good run before it even gets started. But as I look at the dashboard for 2026, I’m seeing some green lights that are hard to ignore.
If you’re sitting at the table in Watford City or Alexander today, you’re likely starting to feel a tailwind that we haven’t felt in quite some time. And it’s not just talk - it’s backed by some cold, hard numbers that suggest 2026 could be a banner year for the Bakken.
Let’s start with the big one: interest rates. We’re heading into 2026 with rates a full percentage point lower than when the current administration took office. Mortgage rates have followed suit. For a young family in McKenzie County trying to get out of a rental and into a home, that’s not just a statistic - it’s an extra $400 to $600 in their pocket every single month. And that farm loan looks a little better to a rancher in Grassy Butte when that loan that cost you 7 percent a year ago is now close to the 5’s.
Now, we know the President has tapped a new Fed chair who isn’t afraid to use the scissors on those rates, so it’s likely that a loan like that actually gets to sub-6 in the new year, but let me be clear that we need a Fed that’s smart enough to be independent. Lowering rates is great for growth, but we can’t ignore history. Repeated rate cuts will almost always lead to higher prices - only time will tell if rising unemployment can counterbalance that effectively. We need growth, yes, but we need it to be sustainable. We want our money to actually buy something, not just be more plentiful.
One of the most frequent complaints I hear in all parts of North Dakota is the cost of living. “Steve, how is a guy supposed to make it when rent is $2,000 for a two-bedroom?” Well, the numbers are starting to shift. No matter where you stand on the politics of the border, the reality is that the self-deportation of 1 to 2 million people nationwide is impacting the housing market. It’s simple supply and demand. As that population footprint shrinks, we’re seeing rent prices finally start to soften. Not much yet, but it’s something. And for the service industry in Watford City, that is a godsend.
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