ANALYSIS: The Maduro Meltdown: Five Things We Need to Watch in the Oil Patch
Steve Hallstrom
Special to The Farmer
I woke up Saturday morning to the news that the Trump Administration had arrested Nicolás Maduro, the strongman dictator of Venezuela, and that he and his wife were now on a U.S. warship, en route to New York to face justice.
My first thought? “Wow, can they do that?”
My second thought? “What does this mean for the price of crude?”
Now, let’s be clear: As an American, the sight of a dictator being held accountable for their crimes is welcome. The Maduro regime has been, to put it lightly, an ethical black hole on the international stage. But as a guy who understands that every action has a reaction, I’m always a little nervous when our nation takes such an aggressive, direct action against a sovereign, albeit corrupt, state. I mean, this is basically the overtaking of a foreign country and its government. It’s a bold move, and it immediately begs a whole lot of questions - about the role of the US overseas, and since we’re in the middle of oil country, the global energy markets.
This isn’t just about Venezuelan politics; it’s about the pump prices you and I pay. AND it’s about the very stability of global energy. So, with that in mind, here are five things we absolutely need to watch in the oil patch now that Maduro is off the chessboard:
1. The End of a Narco-State: Will the Flow of Drugs Slow? Let’s be honest - the Maduro regime wasn’t just mismanaging an economy; it was actively running a narco-state. For years, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and international intelligence agencies have documented Venezuela’s direct involvement in international drug trafficking. It’s not just a Republican opinion. In fact, Trump’s opponent in 2024, Kamala Harris, is on the record as far back as 2019, tweeting “The people who have fled Maduro’s dictatorial regime deserve safety and protection.” Just Sunday, even while condemning the military strike to capture him, she acknowledged that “Maduro is a brutal, illegitimate dictator.” So don’t let anyone tell you this is Trump carving out his own reality. The Maduro regime provided protection and logistical support for drug flights and establishing aerial drug bridges from Venezuela to Central America, Mexico, and eventually, the United States.
High-ranking officials, including Maduro himself, were indicted on charges of narco-terrorism, and accused of collaborating with criminals in Colombia to traffic massive quantities of cocaine. The U.S. Department of Justice alleged that Maduro and his cronies aimed to “flood the United States with cocaine.” The direct seizure of Maduro is a clear decapitation of this illicit network. We’ll see if this snake pops a new head but at minimum, this is a massive blow to people who like to poison Americans while making a few bucks in the meantime. The immediate watch is how much of a “wall at the wall” if you will, this will be to the flow of illegal narcotics and the criminal elements that have been exploiting our southern border. This isn’t just a win for law enforcement; it’s a potential easing of a humanitarian and security crisis that has plagued our nation for too long.
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